Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 3.700395 4.046524 4.449686 4.965479 5.626896 6.478014 7.719890
2025-01-26 3.324328 3.770712 4.337631 5.150020 6.370618 8.346803 12.586780
2025-02-02 3.153176 3.669932 4.369392 5.468497 7.384183 11.449258 30.136694
2025-02-09 2.955392 3.490997 4.243833 5.498224 7.929218 14.515710 NaN
2025-02-16 2.812572 3.363113 4.161954 5.564143 8.578311 19.681355 NaN
2025-02-23 2.627047 3.153920 3.926570 5.307332 8.390674 21.447772 NaN
2025-03-02 2.529381 3.060984 3.857325 5.333909 8.915670 31.266170 NaN
2025-03-09 2.437294 2.967492 3.774838 5.316317 9.328364 51.059233 NaN
2025-03-16 2.333810 2.849376 3.640373 5.171534 9.297343 73.409433 NaN
2025-03-23 2.292562 2.821017 3.649396 5.318694 10.331170 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 2.195758 2.702292 3.496629 5.098556 9.919206 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 2.103300 2.586333 3.342063 4.859419 9.369057 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 2.034241 2.505822 3.247234 4.749732 9.334547 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 2.013559 2.498518 3.276633 4.917376 10.565978 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 2.009580 2.516406 3.350844 5.205181 12.876747 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 1.970913 2.477022 3.319041 5.231947 13.872228 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 1.938999 2.446692 3.301159 5.291242 15.313359 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 1.875106 2.362248 3.178307 5.059775 14.111715 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 1.844858 2.331146 3.152903 5.083787 15.220395 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 1.812001 2.294421 3.114612 5.067894 16.028291 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 1.768314 2.238543 3.037424 4.936878 15.507552 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 1.755930 2.233200 3.055126 5.070042 18.339292 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 1.709170 2.169840 2.959018 4.870689 16.619439 NaN NaN